In the near future, Mexico and the United States etc. ground continue to break out a new Swine influenza virus epidemic situation, the Mexican suspected case reaches to more than 4000 persons and dies a case to attain 152 people;The United States confirmation 50 people are infected;Is European multinational already now suspected case.World Health Organization declares raising the craze warning Class of flu.Currently this time Mexican swine influenza epidemic situation development to see, have already appeared the power head that the world spreads.For all that, total ascend us to think, although the form is finally more rigorous,evolve into 2003"non- Dian" the disaster epidemic situation is still small all lead affairs.The difficult ratio"non- Dian" reason contains 3.One is governments in all countries to well value.Include China at inside, main nations in the world all highly value swine influenza development trend, quickly adopt an effective disease to control means and keep epidemic situation from spreading.In this contagion disease explosion of initial stage aggressive activity, suppressing the success rate that it extensively spreads will consumedly raise;Two is "person's disaster" factor have already hoped to avoid.2003"non- Dian" is in China of so the big scope spreads, a greatly main reason be fore expecting numerous sufferers didn't availably insulate a control and cured at it,NHL snapback cheap trip forming the human relations dissemination of acrossing the district in the process of etc..In this epidemic situation, this factor has already hoped to avoid.Three is a virus toxicity have already weakened an evidence.In addition to the "source ground" Mexican circumstance is very rigorous, the death rate is higher outside, other the nation discovering a case includes the United States, infected person's symptom is widespreadly lighter, haven't appeared the person of Wei heavy disease, this probably represented a virus toxicity to weaken of incline to ―― but haven't got a medical science confirmation.Moreover, influenza virus usually for to compare with sensitive, temperature, accompany with the weather to turn heat, include Mexico at inside, governments in all countries control epidemic situation spreads of the difficulty have already gradually hoped to lower.We think that the development trend that judges swine influenza has two important reference factors:One is whether WHO rating will adjust further;It two is the outbreak number growth trend of the United States.Current circumstance to see, we entertain optimistic an attitude.Currently, the four topics world hasn't canned effectively prevent°from the vaccine of new"reorganization" Swine influenza virus;The medicine being more clinical in common use than treatment flu has 4 kinds, among them gold just two products of alkane, have already produced to bear a medicine, so is basic invalid to this virus;Ao's taking charge of his Wei(reaching is thin) and tying that rice Wei(the joy is pure) then is confirmed at be infected early effective.These two products all produce for patent medicine, reaching thin for Switzerland Luo system medicine company product, enjoying being pure for British Ge orchid the vegetable Shi Ke company.There is no related drugs production business enterprise in domestic, so the swine influenza combines can't constitute to the medicine tectonic plate material positive influence.But worthy of paying attention to BE, some concept topics probably provide short-term bargain opportunity."Reaching is thin" topic:The Luo once authorized the medicine group of medicine parent company in Shanghai production to reach thin, but we thought, once the swine influenza was popular in the local big scope, caused to reach when the thin need surged the nation was upward very likely to adopt cost to add into a method medicine purchase, so combining couldn't bring companies important benefit good;Moreover, the Lai bacterium living creature production's reaching thin raw material Mang grass is sour.Virussafe topic:Though great majority virussafe medicine to new Swine influenza virus not since the effect, market still keeps responding vehemence, include science and technology in the share of Pu Luo, star lake, northeast system medicine, north China make medicine, beautiful bead group, exist a bargain opportunity.Flu vaccine topic:Currently person the flu vaccine didn't prevent°from a function to Swine influenza virus, but the related company exists a bargain opportunity, including China orchid living creature, Altar of Heaven living creature.Animal vaccine topic:The swine influenza epidemic situation has already hoped to stimulate a related animal vaccine need growth.Include medium the herding share, the group of gold Yu and sky Kang living creature.Influence not enough positive swine influenza vs non- Dian to the medicine contrast analysis:The disaster epidemic situation is obvious to short-term negative effect in the market, but the long-term trend in the hard change;The medicine influences to then be partial to negative.The influence bringing market and medicine tectonic plate to the 2003 non- Dian carries on analysis and borrow with calculate once being small to all lead the affairs occurrence ―― of the swine influenza is in China big scope ill nature dissemination, will produce how of result.The non- Dian starts bringing market influence is around March 12, 2003, WHO sends out a warning to the world on this day, and suggest to insulate to cure a suspected case, named after this disease later on SARS;Non- Dian basic be over of it is June 24, 2003, on this day World Health Organization Chinese mainland the epidemic area expel from the non- Dian.In regard to non- Dian, seriously spread a period(March 12, 2003-April 30) in this important contagion disease, the medicine is good, obviously outstripped whole level in the market.But when we make longer time to the end of the year and discovers medicine performance unexpectedly getting behind with big dish.This mainly because of, non- Dian period, other disease sufferers in order to avoid an infection, consumedly reduce the number of times of hospital, on the contrary bring prescription drug sale the negative effect of showing the Zhao.Is comprehensive to come to see,best sunglasses the swine influenza epidemic situation breaks out in big area in China of the possibility is smaller, don't constitute material influence to the medicine tectonic plate, but the period exists short-term bargain opportunity;But if the swine influenza epidemic situation seriously spreads in the domestic and then be partial to to the medicine profession whole influence negative.
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