2011, continue to inflation

In 2011 China's external pressure to see, first of all is the U.S. economic recovery of the weak, and the European sovereign debt crisis. At present, the United States is still in making looser monetary policy, so the goal is obvious, be want to let Obama during the 2012 re-election. So they have to let the emerging economies continue to inflation, retain American exports. To achieve this goal, the United States will send a lot of money, the result is to speed up the hot money inflows to emerging capital market, let commodity prices rising crazy. In December 2010, the international oil prices more than $90 a barrel, in 2008, oil prices have surged to $150 a barrel, as long as no more than the record, the fed will continue the original policy, then international supply pressure and will deliver to domestic CPI. In addition, the European sovereign debt is more important issues this year. The European Union as a independent economies, the unified monetary policy, but it's not the unified fiscal policy. So,baseball hats after the financial crisis, each country to stimulate their economies with the finance growth, and finance is through continuous rolling translated, to continue to maintain their gao fuli economic growth. So I'm afraid the European Union next year will be constantly have the gradual debt broke out, and the debt is a bank to hold, if debt crisis outbreak will related to the relevant bank. Just the past in November 2010, the Spanish debt financing costs rose 18%, as Ireland and Greece faced the same debt crisis, but Spain is Europe's fifth largest economy, if to his relief, the money will be spent than Ireland, Greece these small country, so, the Spanish economy once collapse, to euro blow will be huge. These unfavorable factors and exacerbate global trade scale drop, mainly is China's export will be affected by certain effect. Domestic situation is too abundant liquidity, China's GDP in 2009 to 9.1% growth, money supply growth is 32%, which is very typical inflation monetary conditions. If there is no excess liquidity environment, only the so-called food prices and the rise in food prices factors, can say is structural inflation. If structural factors meet liquidity loose environment,sunglasses shop which will be lit fuse to inflation start a prairie fire of power. While the external input sex inflation and the factors, it can be said that China's inflation over there are many kinds of variable, so I predict 2011 China CPI growth may be in the 4% level.

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