Security room really can make China the economy to a soft landing?

In the global economy downside, under the situation of China's economic future for the trend of the controversial. Some are willing to take out some chips on the table bet, China commodity house prices will significantly lower, and even fallen by half, the risk of a hard landing of the Chinese economy increase. There is also a statement, as long as the government increased security room construction will be able to ensure or ease China's the economy to a soft landing. The latter view of some experts to get approval. Ubs securities economist WangTao December 25 release report said China's security room construction and investment growth will continue to remain strong in certain degree offset weak commodity house,MLB Cap and this moderate growth is enough to prevent the whole real estate construction activities and economic growth has a hard landing. In 2012 China commodity house is expected to sales area and new commenced area will be down about 10%, and drag of the commodity house construction and investment, but security room construction activities and investment growth will continue to remain strong in certain degree offset commodity house weakness. WangTao conflicts with famous scholars BaShuSong earlier this year in the China economic times published on the China economic does not exist, "hard" risk "article point of view in a similar way. BaShuSong says, because of China's economic growth of a series of positive factors and policy space of existence, in the near future in the growth of China's economy downside risk to don't worry too much, also won't appear the risk of a hard landing. If 2011 new 10 million sets in the room of the security plan is progressing smoothly, can partly offset by real estate market regulation brought about by the investment in real estate development and its negative influence on the downside. Look, the security scholars in the room of the function improved to unprecedented levels. Indeed, the government in promoting regulation of the real estate as well, to ensure the implementation of the room. Housing and rural construction has signed with all this year between provincial 2012 housing safeguard work goal responsibility. In 2012, China plans to new construction of affordable housing and carried home improvement more than 7 million sets, basically completed more than 5 million sets. According to estimates, new projects to add two years before the carry forward construction projects, in 2012 the overall security room under construction scale will reach about 18 million sets. However, according to the current situation, the government such a large-scale construction project will ensure room face the land, capital, management and so on a series of problems and challenges, especially at present to public rental housing mainly of affordable housing supply, the biggest problem is money problems. According to housing and construction ministry estimates, this year of 10 million security room needs to construction funds is 13000 to 1.4 trillion yuan RMB. In 2011, 10 million sets of security in the room of the investment money is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan, "1025" affordable housing of the government during the total investment of nearly 5 trillion yuan RMB. And in 2011, the central finance affordable housing in the subsidy funds for 103 billion yuan, therefore, the remaining $1.2 trillion is needed to local financial, bank credit, developers, and other nongovernmental capital to participate. Plus all kinds of public facilities, the future each year could needs 3 trillion yuan capital. Rely on government financial capital, housing accumulation fund is difficult to solve. In fact, China from began to explore to economy is applicable the room give priority to safeguard room construction, the government is trying to attract social capital to build the security room, or attract developers to participate in the construction, but to little effect. In Shanghai as an example, 2011 plan new construction guarantee room 15 million square meters, 220000 units, which male rent and low-cost housing projects, is almost entirely by the government channels raise. Of course, money is not a problem of all. Looking back on it, because the guarantee room policy goal there are big mistake, since the implementation of not only not ease housing inequality, but sharpened the not equal.wholesale nfl jerseys They both come from capital bottleneck, also from security in the room of the orientation, which built for who. Suitable fur, not only can let the government shouldn't assume the responsibility of the, increase the government's financial burden, so as to reduce the government the ability of other public expenditure; More can lead to guarantee the distribution of room of the mess and corruption, etc. At present, the world economy is in a recession, the future development of the uncertainty strengthen, the economy is in a "downside" trend of risk. Because the real estate regulation intensified, as China's important economic part, if the real estate market once completely "crash", will have a serious effect on the economy, including Banks and financial system risk, local debt crisis, government financial burden increase and cannot be put into economic stimulus areas, there will inevitably lead to economic chain happen "chain reaction", economic development inevitable lack of enough power, economic development maybe real "hard" into the state. In this case, some scholars to ensure room construction and China the economy to a soft landing hang hooks to, think increase security room construction force will help the economy to a soft landing, this is obviously wishful thinking, its view is untenable. Objectively speaking, security room only indirectly stimulating domestic demand, but the real can promote the economy to a soft landing, but also in manufacturing, energy, and other entities to the economy, and export, at the same time, including real estate industry. If the industry or industry the drop, so, the economy of China cannot avoid a hard landing.

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